Is Airbnb fuelling an Australian apartment bubble?

 

New figures released by Airbnb reveal the ‘sharing economy’ juggernaut so loved by tourists could be having a more serious displacement effect on traditional city residential rental markets than policymakers and local regulators had first thought.

Data released to the New York State Assembly and Senate by the company February shows in that ‘Hosts’ with two or more listings for entire homes account for a whopping 38 per cent of Airbnb’s revenue – despite the same people with multiple listings accounting for just 6 per cent of people who are offering whole homes up to stay in.

It’s a statistic so lop sided that it jars badly with Airbnb’s user friendly public image as a platform that enables people who might not otherwise travel the opportunity to stay in an established home where people normally lives, but occasionally rent out to make a little extra income on the side.

The meteoric rise and truly global scale that Airbnb has achieved is undeniable, but there now some hard questions being faced by those charged with running cities and they are not going away.

Authorities and policymakers in densely populated cities, where there is natural pressure on rental accommodation, have for at least a year been querying to what extent opportunistic landlords could be bypassing traditional leases to make far more money by exploiting demand for short term accommodation, where rates can be manipulated on a daily basis.

In the case of New York, the data released by Airbnb is part of its efforts to strike a ‘Community Compact’ with elected representatives there “to develop rules for home sharing that will strengthens [SIC] cities” and keep the company and its hosts on the right side of the law and regulations.

There are similar public policy efforts in other cities too, where signs of friction are emerging. And it’s not always going to plan either.

Airbnb’s efforts to influence policymakers to view it as a positive and open contributor to the local economy in New York came embarrassingly unstuck late last year after it was confirmed the company purged more than 1000 Entire Home listings from its platform – just before it released a statistical snapshot.

Critics – more on them a little later – claim that the weeding exercise artificially pushed down the proportion of hosts with multiple listings for Entire Homes in New York from around 19 per cent to just 10 per cent.

For policymakers and councils, the big question going forward is whether there will soon be a natural encroachment into the traditional residential rental market by speculative property investors and professionalised Airbnb hosts.

 

The Local Effect

The so called Airbnb “effect” on rental availability and pricing is an issue that’s also starting to burn in Australian cities like Sydney and Melbourne as councils, strata companies and the property industry – as well as state legislators – try to figure out what is actually happening on their doorsteps, especially in unit developments.

In New South Wales a Parliamentary Inquiry into Adequacy of the regulation of short-term holiday letting in New South Wales has already attracted more than 200 written submissions and will commence public hearings in early March.

A real concern among councils and fire authorities is when flats are effectively converted into unlicensed short stay hotels, the number of people crammed into a unit can be far above permitted occupancy levels, like when as many as 8 people regularly bunk down in a two bedroom apartment.

Thanks to the online and highly distributed and nature of Airbnb host’s activities – remember there are no actually addresses handed out until you book or contact a host – for authorities and regulators the biggest challenge is just getting an accurate picture of what’s going on.

But that could be about to change. Big time.

The same organisation that detected and exposed the manipulative purge of more than 1000 of Airbnb’s multiple listers in New York has set its sights on the NSW Inquiry and Australia and could soon flush out the data councils and policymakers here now find so difficulty to glean.

Founded by ex-pat Australian and now New York resident Murray Cox, ‘Inside Airbnb’ describes itself as an “independent, non-commercial set of tools and data that allows you to explore how Airbnb is really being used in cities around the world.”

Obviously Airbnb won’t tell you everything, but Cox maintains that there’s enough publicly available rich data out there because Airbnb’s listings themselves produce a pretty sophisticated snapshot of what’s happening.

 

The Data transparency debate

One of the biggest challenges councils and regulators face is building a picture from what would otherwise be thousands of pieces of fragmented information floating around in a particular point in time.

Cox, who lives in Brooklyn New York, says he started Inside Airbnb as a self-funded project when he first started noticing debate about the impact of the platform.

What irked him was that despite all the passionate arguments there was a paucity of actual data and he started digging.

“I discovered that there might be data available that might tell the story about how Airbnb was being used in the city, and potentially impacting residential housing,” Cox told Government News.

Cox says he doesn’t charge for the data he compiles if it’s being fed into a public interest or transparency issue or debate. But if the data is being used for clearly commercial purposes, he uses that opportunity to fund the project and offset his infrastructure and other tech costs.

He argues that part of the problem for policymakers is that without access to data on Airbnb – and indeed other sharing economy platforms – the real evidence base for decision making can be opaque and thin.

“Often without the data you are relying on lobbying and sometimes marketing campaigns,” Cox says.

“I saw that there was no real data available in Australia or Sydney, I thought that my tool and my data could provide an impact on the debate and help forming good policy.”

Cox also maintains that communities, policymakers and regulators need to be up for an informed discussion about what effects so-called ‘sharing economy’ platforms could have on the mainstream economy including where and when undesirable market distortions occur.

In the case of the mainstream rental market, it can mean that properties – whole houses or units – in areas of high demand on Airbnb can become unregistered holiday accommodation where landlords and owners cash in on much higher nightly rates than traditional leases.

 

Sharing and caring … the algorithmic approach

While Murray Cox might be making a small amount of money slicing and dicing Airbnb data to offset his project costs, the venture pales in comparison to some of the highly sophisticated online services that feed off Airbnb’s success – and potentially exposes its underbelly.

It’s all very well being an occasional host who washes their own sheets, cleans and makes the bed but when you want to make the most out of your property, it can pay to go to the experts.

One of the companies raising eyebrows in cities is AirDNA, which tracks and analyses demand and pricing data across the world. While that’s not an issue in itself, some of AirDNA’s marketing pitches certainly aren’t directed at owner occupiers.

Under the heading of ‘Target Real Estate Investments’ AirDNA’s promotional material notes that:

“Many savvy real-estate entrepreneurs are buying up homes and condos in prime tourist locations to rent them full-time as vacation rentals. Verify how much short-term rentals are earning in over 4,000 neighborhoods across the globe and calculate how much profit they can generate over the course of a year. Property managers stand to gain with greater income and more reliable bookings.”

“I bought the Vegas report even though we have 5 props there just to see how it compared to my 2015 income data and it’s pretty ******* accurate. Based on that we’re gonna move forward on the investments that you recommended! Great work dude!”

Another testimonial on the site from ‘David M’ is even more upbeat about buying investment properties based on Airbnb rentals.

“I bought the Vegas report even though we have 5 props there just to see how it compared to my 2015 income data and it’s pretty ******* accurate,” David M’s testimonial says.

“Based on that we’re gonna move forward on the investments that you recommended! Great work dude!”

Another company, Beyond Data, specialises in dynamic pricing – that’s where rates rise and fall based on demand – for Airbnb and other sharing platforms and spruiks increases of as much as 40 per cent when its algorithms are used to manage pricing.

That’s great news for hosts looking to maximise their returns, but it also puts Airbnb listings on a similarly sophisticated footing to hotels and airlines that use sophisticated pricing engines to maximise yield.

 

Transfixed by technology

Murray Cox reckons that what he calls the “ecosystem” of service companies feeding off Airbnb is evidence that the platform is now at a size and scale it could well be having residential property market impacts.

Some of the effects he’s concerned about is a more heated housing market causing the evaporation of affordable properties and the depletion of stock as investors chase bigger returns.

Politicians and policymakers are meant to help the community deal with managing or controlling the consequences of such issues, but instead often find themselves standing next to tech companies to try and look relevant and up to date for voters.

Cox is naturally sceptical about how some politicians appear to want to harness to coolness factor that tech marketers appear to be able to imbue in the media.

“Embracing new technology is, for a lot of politicians, what they need to do to be relevant to their constituents,” Cox says.

“You can get a situation where companies have a negative impact on cities – but politicians are really trying to support that business.”

It’s something legislators sitting who are sitting on the Inquiry into Adequacy of the regulation of short-term holiday letting in New South Wales might keep in mind when taking evidence.

Public hearings for the Parliamentary Inquiry commence on 7^th March 2016, in Tweed heads, with another public hearing in Sydney on 14^th of March 2016.

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Franchised bus routes could reap $1 billion

Franchising bus routes in Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Newcastle could boost government coffers by $1 billion over five years, says the peak Australian tourist and transport body.

A report by Tourism & Transport Forum Australia (TTF) and international consulting firm L.E.K. “On the Buses: The Benefits of Private Sector Involvement in the Delivery of Bus Services” says that competitively contracting out bus routes to private operators can deliver financial and service benefits to the government and commuters.

TTF CEO Margy Osmond said: “The management of bus networks is an area of transport policy in which the private sector has proven again and again that it can deliver quality services at best value for taxpayers’ money – that is the benchmark by which we should be deciding on the best operator of our bus networks.”

She said that franchising was “a great model” for state and territory governments because it kept infrastructure such as buses and depots in public hands but contracted out their operation.

“The experience in other Australian states and international jurisdictions is that franchising delivers better results to government and commuters,” she said.

“Our report shows that cost savings of over 20 per cent have been achieved around the world through franchising. In Australia, this could equate to an estimated $1 billion saving over five years that could be reinvested in better public transport services.

Ms Osmond said that Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin already had bus networks that were completely managed by private operators, not government.

“Sydney is halfway there with a hybrid system of private and publicly operated buses – our report makes the clear case that private operators should be given the chance to competitively bid for the four contracts being run by Sydney Buses.

“Our analysis indicates that there is the potential for up to half a billion dollars in savings over five years if Sydney Buses was run by a private operator.

“ACTION buses in Canberra are a strong candidate for competitive tendering and inclusion of the proposed light rail in the contract would make it very attractive to private operators in a similar model being embraced by the NSW Government in Newcastle.

“Bus franchising in Queensland makes a lot of sense at a time when the Government is facing a significant budget challenge. The national experience shows that franchising buses improves services and saves taxpayers money – a perfect combination for the Queensland budget.”

Monica Ryu, Transport and Infrastructure Partner at L.E.K, said that the most critical element to get right of contracting was “effective contestability”, which meant, open and fair competition for contracts every six to eight years.

She said that improvements should also be made to the competitive process.

“The report argues the case for a competitive environment between private operators – multiple bidders for a local bus network provides better value for taxpayers,” Ms Ryu said.

“Ensuring access to existing infrastructure in the contract zone such as bus depots is a major stumbling block for a new entrant that is unlikely to have that infrastructure already in place.

“There are legacy issues that government will need to tackle in terms of negotiating access to privately-owned bus depots if a competitive environment is to be cultivated with new entrants.”

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Corruption allegations at Sydney Councils tip of the iceberg, says researcher

Auburn councillors, including Deputy Mayor Salim Mehajer have been suspended while a public inquiry investigates planning and development decisions. Photo: Facebook.

 

The NSW government has been too soft on local government fraud, corruption and bad behaviour, says a researcher specialising in governance and political structures.

Nicole Campbell, Associate at the University Technology of Sydney’s (UTS) Centre for Local Government, has spent years researching governance– including examining the scale of fraud and corruption in councils – and said processes need to be tightened up, dodgy councillors brought to book and councillors made more aware of unacceptable behaviour.

She said it was difficult to ascertain the extent of fraud and corruption in NSW local government.

“The short answer is, we don’t know,” Ms Campbell said. “I think there is a lot of corruption that’s occurring that is not being reported and I don’t say that lightly because I’m passionate about local government.”

It’s an area that has attracted a great deal of scrutiny in the midst of some recent high profile cases of local government chicanery.

The biggest circus has been that surrounding Auburn Council. It was the story that had it all: limos, helicopters, ambitious developers, flamboyant councillors, dubious planning decisions and a few whistleblowing councillors risking their necks to speak out.

NSW Local Government Minister Paul Toole suspended every Auburn councillor in February and has appointed an administrator while a public inquiry investigates allegations that some councillors made planning and development decisions for their own benefit.

The news isn’t much better at Hurstville or North Sydney Councils. Hurstville Council was placed into administration in September last year after councillors fired a number of key senior council staff who worked in governance, auditing and planning.

Former Hurstville Mayor, property developer Con Hindi was fined for not remediating asbestos on one of his development sites and chastised for using his casting vote to sack general manager Victor Lampe, who was due to give evidence about the mayor’s asbestos troubles later in the meeting. The Office of Local Government (OLG) is currently pursuing Mr Hindi for alleged misconduct.

Mr Toole ordered a public inquiry into allegations of conflict and dysfunction North Sydney in January after infighting paralysed decision making in the council chamber, while over at Rockdale Council, Liberal councillors have stage numerous walkouts to stymie a vote on selling a car park to fund a new aquatic centre and library.

The fault lines
Director of the Australian Centre of Excellence for Local Government at the University of Technology Sydney, Associate Professor Roberta Ryan, said procurement and decision making, particularly around planning and development, offered the greatest opportunity for duplicitousness and self interest.

A/Prof Ryan said another fault line in local government could be the relationship between council general managers and the mayor or CEO.

“The mayor holds the key to the general manager/CEO’s job and pressure can be put on general managers to do things that they shouldn’t,” she said.

“All jurisdictions, through the state government local government departments and the professional associations, have systems in place to support senior officials when they face this situation but it can get tricky.

“The more worrying aspect is probably corruption – if it is systematic across organisations – [it] means there are a number of people involved and there is a lack of process and systems for proper transparency.”

She added, “I would say there is not any evidence that fraud and corruption is widespread in NSW – [no] worse than in other jurisdictions or in other levels of government. We have seen isolated examples across the public sector in Australia.

Tightening the system
Ms Campbell said current local council processes were not capturing corruption effectively and action was not taken where it was identified.

She said one of the biggest mistakes in recent years was passing the Local Government Amendment Act 2011, which allowed councillors who were also property developers to vote on decisions where they had a vested interest, providing they declared it.

“I really think it’s an example of state-sanctioned corruption; where the state government has a law that allows property developers or those with a pecuniary interest to vote on a decision and that gives them a clear benefit. This is a massive problem,” Ms Campbell said.

“Evidence of councillor misconduct by councillors with pecuniary interests will have increased because they can say they were acting within the law but not ethically or morally. It’s extraordinary that the government felt the need pass that in the first place.”

She said it was also important to examine how many complaints about councillor conduct were made to the OLG and how many were substantiated.

“I’m dismayed that the government has not taken the opportunity to pursue many of these.”

Few cases of councillor misconduct appeared to have reached the Pecuniary Interest and Disciplinary Tribunal or the Administrative Affairs Tribunal.

“I think it’s because the process is so unwieldy, people give up.”

A former councillor herself, Ms Campbell has lived through some of “the trouble” at Ryde Council between 2011 and 2014.

Former Ryde Mayor Ivan Petch is currently being prosecuted for misconduct in public office, blackmail and giving false or misleading evidence to a corruption inquiry. The Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) have also recommended that several former Ryde councillors face charges for breaching electoral funding laws after accepting free advertising from a local newspaper.

She said the councillors got off scot-free because the Electoral Funding Authority said it was not worth taking it any further because of cost but also lack of evidence, despite the recommendations of the DPP and ICAC.

“There was no follow up action and that sends a message to councillors they can get away with it.”

She pointed to a “clunky” code of conduct, where complaints against councillors are investigated internally by the General Manager. Even where complaints are upheld, councillors can still vote to take no action.

“If the numbers sit with the person that has done the wrong thing [or they have the casting vote] the report has to go back to council for investigation. Council staff see the note which says “no further action”.”

It would be better to have an independent inquiry which made recommendations to the OLG.

“I don’t think it’s appropriate for councillors to be sitting in judgement on one of their own.”

Another major improvement would be to make it harder councillors to remove general managers. At the moment, councillors can sack general managers without even having to give a reason and the process is not transparent.

“There are so many examples of general managers being sacked on a whim by councillors because a particular decision hasn’t gone their way. Paying out GMs is also very expensive. The OLG should have acted many years ago.”

But Ms Campbell said Mr Toole had been too blunt in suspending every Auburn councillor when some had spoken out against poor planning and development decisions.

She said it punished all of the councillors and deprived ratepayers of their elected representatives. It was likely that the appointed administrator would hand straight over to the new council – Auburn is slated to merge with Holroyd and parts of Parramatta – and suspended councillors may never return.

“You should remove those councillors whose conduct is unworthy of holding public office but those councillors that are doing the right thing should be able carry on their roles as elected representatives,” she said.

An amendment to the Councillor Misconduct Bill, which went through in December 2015, gave Mr Toole the power to suspend individual councillors, not just the whole council.

Ms Campbell said: “The vast majority of elected representatives work very, very hard for their local communities. It’s a few rotten apples that spoil the barrel and that’s a shame because local government is an important sector.”

Will fraud and corruption grow under larger, merged councils?
Both women take the view that there is no reason that larger councils with more power and bigger budgets should equate to an increase in fraud or corruption.

A/Prof Ryan said: “[It’s] not likely to be worse – bigger councils can have more complex systems of accountability – it goes to the legislative frameworks and the codes of conduct – they will either stay the same or it will be strengthened.

“Regarding councillors – their role is strategic leadership – not operational management. There are checks and balances in the system to ensure accountability – and a focus on training to ensure councillors understand not just the codes of conduct but how to behave ethically.

“Public sector rules for officers are very clear on how to make transparent decisions and there are layers of sign offs – delegations etc.”

Ms Campbell agreed that good governance was critical to running a tight ship.

“If you’ve got an executive management team and a group of councillors that are aware of the rules and their responsibilities and which work together within a strong governance framework, I don’t think it matters how big the council is.”

Possible solutions
Both agreed that compulsory training on the code of conduct and ethics was the best way to guard against wrongdoing. Mentoring using alliances between several councils could help too.

Ms Campbell said: “Councillors are responsible for multi-million dollar budgets. It’s critical to get councillors and people who want to be councillors aware of the rules and responsibilities of their positions and ethical decision making processes before they get elected. [At the moment] they learn as they go along.”

The most common misunderstandings, she said, were around donations towards election campaigns – including in-kind donations – and more education was needed from the Electoral Commission and the OLG to counter these.

Bullying, hectoring and noisy behaviour should be clamped down on too, Ms Campbell said.

“Behaviour in chambers is appalling and the bullying that goes on has no place in any level of government I think councillors take their cues from noisy Question Time. They think this is how to behave. Well, it most certainly is not.”

She said the government needed to take a much stronger role in addressing rude and hectoring behaviour, including sanctioning councillors that rendered meetings inquorate to delay decisions.

“Ministers can regulate that behaviour and it’s a shame there hasn’t been more focus on improving the governance of councils,” Ms Campbell said.

ACELG runs an elected members program which looks at ethics, governance and the theory behind administrative processes.

A/Prof Ryan said: “You can only regulate people’s behaviour up to a point. People have to be constantly engaged in process to help them understand what corrupt behaviour looks like and what they can do to guard against it. There should also be strong enforceable protections for whistle blowers.”

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Adam Scott: How to silence the doubters

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Is the Very Fast Train back on the Federal agenda?

 

Few nation building projects can both inspire and frustrate the public and potential investors as much Australia’s half-century long flirtation with building a high-speed East Coast railroad – aka a Very Fast Train – that is still yet to lay a single sleeper.

But there are strong signs emerging that even right-leaning free market conservatives, who are normally sceptical about backing big government-driven infrastructure projects, could be about come on track and back the idea of a Very Fast Train (VFT) as a means to drive investment.

Credible reports in Fairfax Media have reveal former trade Minister – and soon to be businessman – Andrew Robb has started passionately championing the building of a Very Fast Train to Australia’s corporate and transport sectors as a vital piece of infrastructure.

According to the report, which is based on a recording of a speech by Mr Robb to a freight symposium just two days after he announced he was departing Cabinet, the combination of low interest rates across the globe and a strong international investment appetite for major projects in stable countries like Australia is now an opportunity to valuable to miss.

“We should do it now whilst the world is awash with cheap money – in six or seven years it may not be – but it is at the moment,” Mr Robb is reported to have told industry at the symposium.

The revelation of Mr Robb’s comments is fortuitous.

It comes just a day before Federal Parliament’s Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities takes evidence from the Central Japan Railway Company and Japanese diplomats on the operation of its network of high speed rail lines for the last 60 years.

The Standing Committee is running an inquiry into the role of transport connectivity on stimulating development and economic activity, a topic that is also close to the heart of the Coalition partner, the Nationals and will also hear from Torkel Patterson, the vice chairman of the International High Speed Rail Association.

The promotion of building a Very Fast Train from a member of the right faction of the Coalition Turnbull government is highly significant because it opens the possibility that high speed rail along the East Coast could finally garner bipartisan support.

The previous Abbott government largely directed government transport infrastructure focus towards motorway and toll road builds, such as Sydney’s controversial WestConnex, in an effort to relieve metropolitan congestion by completing ring roads and linking transport corridors so that trucks and cars had a faster path than existing suburban roads.

While those road projects remain, what has changed significantly following the 2015 leadership change within the Coalition is that both rail and public transport are again strongly in the mix for federal funding as the Turnbull government tries to work with state governments on urban challenges through the creation of the “Cities and Built Environment” ministry.

A notable element of Mr Robb’s latest backing of the Very Fast Train project is that private investors could be enticed to back the project by harnessing the so-called ‘Value Capture’ mechanism, where outlay is recouped by builders and the government taking a cut of the increase in property values and new building and economic development a fast transport corridor would bring.

In New South Wales, the Baird government is heavily backing the Value Capture model, which is commonly used in Asia, to financially underpin its new Sydney Metro rapid transit rail line that will use driverless trains run at high frequency so that passengers won’t need a timetable.

The Baird government is also piggy-backing a major renewal of presently run-down inner city public housing estates, revealing it will rebuild large sections of Waterloo into a mix of private and public that will be serviced by routing the Metro project literally underneath the redevelopment.

Property developers are predictably cheering on the Sydney Metro development because it opens the door to more densely populated developments that are far less reliant on cars and buses thanks to their immediate proximity to rapid mass transit.

The potential application of Value Capture to regional centres where a Very Fast Train would run through is also likely to be applauded by urban developers because it would likely produce higher yields on new dwellings than present regional and outer-suburban projects that usually sell at a discount to properties closer to cities.

According to the Australasian Rail Association “the rollout of High Speed Rail (HSR) along Australia’s East Coast are long term solutions that will take cars off our roads, reduce road congestion and accidents, decrease travel time for all involved, reduce Australia’s carbon footprint and above all, improve Australia’s productivity and competitiveness.”

The industry group is pushing for an East Coast Very Fast Train route of almost 1800 km that will run at 350km/h and has called on Federal and States governments to ensure a corridor is preserved to secure the run.

The ARA advocated HSR route would be divided into two stages.

Stage One would connect Sydney, Southern Highlands, Canberra, Wagga Wagga, Albury Wodonga, Shepparton and Melbourne.

Stage Two would connect Sydney, Central Coast, Newcastle, Taree, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Grafton, Casino, Gold Coast, Brisbane.

According to travel times estimated by the ARA, a HSR would easily be competitive with air travel, especially after travel to the airport and check in times are factored in.

Inter-city and regional travel times as estimated by the ARA are:

• Brisbane – Gold Coast: 15 minutes
• Canberra – Sydney: 1 hour
• Sydney – Melbourne: 3 hours
• Gold Coast – Sydney: 3 hours
• Sydney – Newcastle: 40 minutes.

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Stand-in goalkeeper proves Man City's hero at Wembley

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